Rating Release
Agusto & Co.’s 2025 Sovereign Rating Report on the Republic of Rwanda.
The rating affirmation reflects our opinion on Rwanda’s resilient economy, evidenced by the average real GDP growth of circa 7% in the last decade and a projected 9.5% in FY 2026, supported by improved performance in the service sector, increased activities in the industrial sector and a resilient agricultural sector. Rwanda’s public debt also remains sustainable with a moderate risk of distress and a debt service to revenue ratio below the International Monetary Fund (IMF) threshold of 30%. The rating also takes into account Rwanda’s storied political stability, alongside key structural reforms, which continue to drive national unity and accelerate economic development. In addition, the Rwandan government’s commitment to promoting investments in strategic sectors such as tourism, renewable energy and infrastructure has made the Country an attractive investment destination, thereby fostering economic growth. The rating is, however, constrained by a 14% depreciation of the Rwandan Franc against the US dollar recorded in the last two years to 31 December 2025, with further depreciation of 4.8% projected by the end of 2026. This is expected to negatively impact the debt service to revenue ratio due to high reliance on foreign currency debt.
Going forward, we expect Rwanda’s economic growth trajectory to remain strong, supported by a robust services sector along with increased industrial activities and a resilient agricultural sector. Growth will further be supported by government initiatives aimed at increasing investments in the Country’s key sectors, therefore enhancing the Nation’s attractiveness as a premier investment and financial services hub in East Africa. Additionally, Rwanda’s ongoing transformational reforms (National Strategy for Transformation – NST2) as well as the Country’s political stability are expected to accelerate development and foster national unity, reinforcing the Country’s economic resilience.
